Token Model Assumptions

Market Making

Here’s an enhanced analysis incorporating scenarios where investors and/or the team do not sell their vested tokens, along with their potential impact on price dynamics and market sentiment:

Revised Scenarios: Impact of HODLing Behavior

(Based on original market cap assumptions from prior analysis)

Scenario 1: Investors Don't Sell

Month	Adjusted Circulating Supply	Base Case Price	Bull Case Price	Bear Case Price
TGE	235.5M	$0.085	$0.212	$0.042
+6mo	235.5M (No investor unlocks)	$0.085	$0.212	$0.042
+12mo	268.5M (Only team unlocks)	$0.075 (+1.3% vs original)	$0.186 (+0%)	$0.037 (+0%)
+24mo	316.7M (No investor dilution)	$0.063 (+23.5% vs original)	$0.158 (+23.4%)	$0.032 (+23.1%)

Key Impacts:

Price stability improves due to reduced sell pressure from investors’ $7.4M monthly unlocks [1][2]
FDV/MCap ratio drops to 2.65x (vs original 3.77x in Base Case), closer to ETH/BTC standards [1]
Requires only $510k daily volume (vs $680k originally) to maintain Base Case price [2][3]

Scenario 2: Team Doesn't Sell

Month	Adjusted Circulating Supply	Base Case Price	Bull Case Price	Bear Case Price
+12mo	241.9M (No team unlocks)	$0.083 (+12.1%)	$0.207 (+11.3%)	$0.041 (+10.8%)
+24mo	363.3M	$0.055 (+7.8%)	$0.138 (+7.8%)	$0.028 (+7.7%)

Key Impacts:

Avoids 13.3M tokens/month dilution starting at Month 12 [1][4]
Signals long-term commitment, likely improving market sentiment [2][8]
Reduces FDV inflation risk by 38% compared to original model [2][3]